Price on Value
March, 1999
A Tale of Two Companies
John Price, Ph.D.
Questions and comments from readers:
MGIC investor
I hope a whole lotta investors see your article.
The comparison might do some good for my languishing shares of MTG. You've just about
convinced me that it might be a good idea to buy more shares. My only criticism, if it is
a criticism, is that I still don't really understand why MTG is so much out of favor. As
for Gillette, I bought the Mach 3 razor because of a write-up in Bloomberg's that
pointed out that none of its testers had received a nick. The razor is far better than I
expected, a major breakthrough in shaving even! To my chagrin, my hair has been relocating
from my forehead to my ears and nose. The ear lobes themselves are growing hair. The lobes
are a problem. Scissors don't work, but shaving them results in a whole lotta nicks and
bleeding However, the Mach 3 can shave the ears without nicking. It's quite a combination
-- a razor that shaves closer than a conventional razor but also a razor that offers
superb protection from nicks. I love it. As for the expensive blades, I find that I only
need to change them monthly. So, my expense comes to a little over a dollar a month for
blades -- well worth it. And my point: Good will. Gillette has a lot of that asset. It
provides the pizazz that apparently translates into a high stock price.
Tom Rickenbacker
A possible explanation
I enjoyed your article on Gillette and MGIC. I subscribe to the "Warren
Buffett" theory of value investing and have been analyzing the PMI industry and
several companies in it for the past several months. I recently purchased shares in MGIC
for a partnership I manage. I consider the company a "toll booth" investment
with excellent management and a sustainable competitive advantage. The whole industry is
valued low, but, as you know, academic studies of the "low P/E" effect indicate
that on average stocks with low P/Es (TTM) outperform the market over the long term.
Could the difference in the market's valuation of the two companies be due to Warren
Buffett already owns Gillette combined with all the books about his investments that have
come out in the last few years?
Glen D. West, MBA
Dear Glen:
Thanks for your comments. I am sure the fact that Buffett owns a lot og Gillette is a
factor, but not enough to account for its astronomical p/e.
John
Great article
Great article Dr. Price. I am looking forward to your article on the present value of
future cash flows and how to clculate them. A few comments on MGIC. I have looked into
MGIC and was impressed with managments ability to steadily increase earnings. However it
has been so long since a housing slowdown that I can't comfortably see the future impact
it would have on MGIC's business. Still more work to do.
In Health,
Brett Davidson |