Warren Buffett meets Sherlock Holmes

The Valuesoft Investment System
Version 2.1
Table of Contents

THE INVESTOR’S DILEMMA III
   Asking the right questions iii
   How much of the manual should you read? vi
   Excel Functions vi
   Valuesoft Examples vii

THE VALUESOFT STORY 1

CHAPTER 1 INSTALLATION

Installation and the Valuesoft Functions

Valuesoft Installation
Activating the Valuesoft Functions as Add-Ins
Removal
Calling the Valuesoft Functions
Getting Started with Company Data
Support
File Names

Viewing the Manual

CHAPTER 2 UNDERSTANDING FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 9

Principal Financial Statements 9

Income Statement 9
Balance Sheet
Statement of Cash Flows

Financial Ratios

CHAPTER 3 METHODS OF STOCK VALUATION AND SELECTION 14

Static Valuation Methods

Net Current Asset Value

CHAPTER 4 DISCOUNT CASH FLOW METHODS 17

Question 1: What do we mean by the cash that can be taken out of a business?

Earnings, owner earnings, cash earnings and free cash flow

Question 2. How fast is this cash growing and for how long?

Forecasts out to infinity
Earnings forecasts

Question 3. What discount rate should you use?

Weighted Average Cost of Capital and Required Return

Strengths and weaknesses Discount Cash Flow methods

CHAPTER 5 DIVIDEND DISCOUNT METHODS 26

Company paying no dividends
Free Cash Flow and Dividends

Payout Ratio Valuation

Residual Income Valuation

Clean Surplus Relation

Dividend Discount Methods in Valuesoft 9

Strengths and Weaknesses of the Dividend Discount Methods

CHAPTER 6 PRICE RATIO METHODS 32

Price-Earnings Ratio

Earnings Forecasts

Analyst Forecasts of Earnings
Your Own Estimates of Earnings
Making accurate forecasts using STAEGR

Earnings and Sales

Return on Equity and Earnings Growth

USA Companies

Australian and New Zealand Companies

CHAPTER 7 VALUESOFT TEMPLATES 43

Level 1 Templates: Investment Return

Margin of Safety

Level 2 Templates: Stability and Growth Rates

Margin of Safety Using Safety Functions in Valuesoft
ARB Corporation

Template Addresses

CHAPTER 8 VALUESOFT INVESTMENT FUNCTIONS 56

DDM

Variables
Discussion
Examples

DDMF

Variables
Discussion
Examples

ERI 9

Variables 9
Discussion 9

GIVF

Variables
Discussion
Examples

NCAV

Variables
Discussion
Examples

PAYBACK

Variables
Discussion
Examples

PEG

Variables
Discussion
Examples

PEGY

Variables
Discussion
Examples

PRESVAL

Variables
Discussion
Examples

RIV

Variables
Discussion
Examples

STRET

Variables
Discussion
Examples

STRETD

Variables 9
Discussion 9
Examples 9

SV

Variables
Discussion
Examples

TARG

Variables
Discussion
Examples

TARGD

Variables
Discussion
Examples

CHAPTER 9 VALUESOFT EARNINGS FUNCTIONS 74

CAGR

Variables
Discussion
Examples

EFORECAST

Variables
Discussion
Examples

HGROWTH

Variables
Discussion
Examples
Technical Note

STAEGR

Variables
Discussion
Examples

SURPNEG

Variables
Discussion
Examples

SURPPOS

Variables
Discussion
Examples

CHAPTER 10 VALUESOFT OPTION FUNCTIONS 77

EURO

Variables
Discussion 9
Examples

EUROF

Variables
Discussion
Examples

VOLATILITY

Variables
Discussion
Examples

APPENDIX A INTRODUCTION TO EXCEL FUNCTIONS 83

Functions and function arguments

Types of Functions

Date Functions
Financial Functions
Logical Functions

Data Entry

Examples

GLOSSARY OF TERMS 89

REFERENCES

STRET, STRETD, TARG, TARGD, HGROWTH, and STAEGR are trademarks of Dr. John Price.

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